The Shifting Sands of the South Caucasus: Geopolitical Implications of Democratic Backsliding in Georgia

Georgia, historically a vital bridge between East and West, finds itself at a critical juncture. Once hailed as a beacon of democratic progress in the post-Soviet space, the nation now faces challenges to its democratic institutions. This apparent democratic backsliding has significant geopolitical implications, creating opportunities for Russia, China, and Iran to expand their influence in the strategically important South Caucasus region. This article analyzes these dynamics and their potential consequences for regional stability and international relations.

Georgia: A Decade of Democratic Promise (and Peril)

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia embarked on a path towards democracy, marked by significant reforms and a pro-Western orientation. The Rose Revolution of 2003 symbolized a commitment to democratic values and closer ties with Europe and the United States. However, recent years have witnessed a concerning trend of democratic backsliding.

Signs of this backsliding include controversial legislation, such as the debated foreign agent law, which critics argue mirrors Russian tactics to suppress dissent. Political polarization has intensified, with deep divisions between the ruling party and opposition groups. Concerns about judicial independence and media freedom have also been raised by international observers.

Several internal factors contribute to this backsliding. These include a legacy of weak institutions, persistent corruption, and the influence of oligarchic structures. Political infighting and a lack of consensus on key reforms have further hampered democratic consolidation. The ongoing conflict with Russia over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia also adds to the country's instability. For more context, refer to a CNN report on democratic backsliding in Georgia.

Russia's Resurgence in the Region

Russia has long maintained a strong presence in the South Caucasus, viewing the region as part of its sphere of influence. Moscow has strategic interests in controlling energy transit routes, preventing NATO expansion, and countering Western influence. Georgia's democratic backsliding provides Russia with opportunities to exert greater influence.

Russia may seek to exploit political divisions within Georgia, potentially through supporting pro-Russian political factions or interfering in elections. Economic pressure, such as trade restrictions or energy blackmail, could also be used to weaken Georgia's resolve. The presence of Russian troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia serves as a constant reminder of Moscow's military power and its willingness to intervene in the region. Russia perceives NATO expansion as a threat to its security interests, and Georgia's aspirations to join the alliance are a major point of contention. Russia's perspective on NATO expansion significantly impacts the regional dynamics.

China's Expanding Footprint

China's economic presence in the South Caucasus has grown significantly in recent years, primarily through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Georgia's strategic location makes it a key transit country for Chinese goods heading to Europe. However, Georgia's weakened democracy might make it more susceptible to Chinese influence and investment.

Increased Chinese investment could lead to greater debt dependency, potentially compromising Georgia's sovereignty. Concerns have also been raised about the environmental and social impact of Chinese infrastructure projects. The potential implications of Chinese infrastructure projects include shifting trade patterns, increased regional connectivity, and altered geopolitical alignments. China's growing economic clout in the region could challenge the traditional dominance of Russia and the West.

Iran's Strategic Calculations

Iran has historical and cultural ties to the South Caucasus, particularly with Azerbaijan and Armenia. While its relationship with Georgia has been more limited, Tehran sees opportunities to expand its influence in the region, especially as Western engagement wanes. Georgia's democratic backsliding, coupled with perceived Western disengagement, could create opportunities for Iran.

Iran could seek to expand trade and cultural exchange with Georgia, potentially offering alternative economic partnerships. Security cooperation, particularly in areas such as counter-terrorism and border security, could also be explored. However, Iranian involvement could also raise concerns about regional security and stability, given its complex relationship with the West and its support for various non-state actors. The potential implications of Iranian involvement include increased regional competition, shifting alliances, and potential for proxy conflicts.

The Eswatini Factor: A Tangential but Relevant Note

While seemingly unrelated, global policies like the deportation program referenced in the AP News report on US deportations to Eswatini demonstrate how the policies of other nations also have a global impact. Power dynamics are always at play, and decisions made far away can ripple across continents, influencing local stability and international relations.

Ukraine's Predicament: A Looming Shadow

Russia's ongoing aggression in Ukraine, exemplified by the large drone attacks mentioned in the CNN report on Russian drone attacks on Ukraine, casts a long shadow over the geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus. Georgia, already vulnerable due to its own territorial disputes with Russia, faces increased risk.

The international community's focus on Ukraine might divert attention and resources away from the South Caucasus, creating further opportunities for Russia, China, and Iran to advance their interests. The war in Ukraine has also highlighted the importance of strategic partnerships and security alliances, prompting Georgia to seek closer ties with NATO and other Western institutions.

Consequences and Implications

Increased Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence in the South Caucasus could have far-reaching consequences:

• Erosion of democratic values and institutions: The promotion of authoritarian models of governance could undermine Georgia's democratic progress.
• Increased regional instability and conflict: Competition between Russia, China, and Iran could exacerbate existing tensions and lead to new conflicts.
• Weakening of Western influence: The decline of Western engagement could create a vacuum for other actors to fill.
• Shifting geopolitical alliances: New partnerships and alignments could reshape the regional balance of power.

Conclusion

Georgia's democratic backsliding presents a complex geopolitical challenge for the South Caucasus. While the country faces internal struggles and external pressures, its strategic location makes it a key player in the region. The rise of Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence could have significant consequences for regional stability and international relations. Promoting democracy, stability, and regional cooperation requires a concerted effort from Georgia, its Western partners, and other stakeholders.

It is crucial for readers to stay informed and engaged in the geopolitical dynamics of the region. By understanding the challenges and opportunities facing Georgia and the South Caucasus, we can work together to promote a more peaceful, prosperous, and democratic future.

Glossary of Terms

Geopolitics

The study of the influence of geography on politics and international relations.

South Caucasus

A region located at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia, generally considered to comprise the modern states of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Democratic Backsliding

The gradual erosion of democratic norms, institutions, and practices within a country.